Iran stays whole
No part of the land and no part of the people is split off.
Does the country hold together better?Divan, by Ahura
How Divan works
Divan follows three questions: what happened, what does it mean, what can be done. The first is answered only from sources. The other two are AI analysis, and always say so.
The advisors' yardstick: three goals
The facts are neutral, the advice is notDivan's advisors are not neutral. Every proposal is weighed against three goals: Iran stays whole, grows stronger and becomes the first power of its region. The facts stay neutral; only the advice has this direction.
A stronger Iran
A stronger economy, defence, science and cohesion.
Does the country gain strength?First power of the region
No major decision in the region is taken without Iran.
Does Iran weigh more in the region?At the Decision Table and in In Their Seat you see three columns next to every proposal: a column that rises means the proposal brings Iran closer to that goal, one that sinks means further away. These are estimates of direction, not figures, and each carries its reason.
Four rules
- No figure without a source and a date
Next to every figure we say where it comes from and which day it refers to. The link is right there.
- Where we do not know, we say so
Instead of a guess or a rough number we write “No data available”.
- News and analysis are kept apart
A reported fact sits in a plain frame. AI analysis sits in a dashed frame, in serif type, with the label “AI analysis, not news”.
- The subject is the office, not the person
In “In Their Seat” we talk about the choices of an office. For military offices we write strategic choices only, never operational plans. Places of events are at city level.
How far the figures were checked
- Official document
Read from the document of the body that issued it.
15 - Report we read
The news page or report was opened and read.
23 - Quoted second-hand
The page we read quotes a source that could not itself be opened.
2
Of 40 key facts. Anything seen only in a search-engine summary was left out of Divan.
How far the events are confirmed
- Confirmed
Several sources, independent of each other, say the same.
80 - Claim
Only one party to the event has said so.
94 - Unverified
It is disputed or not yet confirmed.
10
Of 184 war events. Every event has at least one source that was opened and read.
Where we read from
Open data and our own data only- International Atomic Energy AgencyBoard reports on the nuclear programme
- Council of the European UnionEU sanctions and their dates
- Financial Action Task ForceThe blacklist and public statements
- ManshurLive news with the outlets of each side of the spectrum, and market rates
- BidarHistory, documents and historical maps
- World Bank (World Development Indicators)The figures of “Iran in the region”: economy, people, science and armed forces personnel; licence: CC BY 4.0
- Natural EarthCoastlines and borders on the map (public domain data)
- Cliopatria (Seshat Global History Databank)Historical borders on the History map: one reading of the territory of past states, not exact borders; simplified by Divan; licence: CC BY 4.0
News agencies and other bodies are the source of many rows too; each link sits next to its row. We also keep 41 office holders, each with a source.
What the AI does in Divan
The AI does three things: at the Decision Table it weighs a real decision through five lenses (economy, diplomacy, security, domestic politics, history) and gives a conclusion; in In Their Seat it says what it would decide in each office; and on Today it says what the latest events mean. These are suggestions and do not replace decisions by officials. Every suggestion is weighed against the same three goals. The AI does not make up numbers: where we have none it gives only the direction of an effect, and names the real observation it leans on. Behind the scenes it does two more things: it weighs the ideas people send, and it watches Manshur's reports for an office that changes hands. Neither is published before a human approves it.
Three sites, three questions
The Ahura family- What was said?Manshur
Each report as the outlets of every side tell it, side by side. Divan's live news comes from here.
Open Manshur - Where do we come from?Bidar
History, documents and the roots of what we see today. Divan's History page leads into it.
Open Bidar - What can be done?Divan
Where things stand and the decisions ahead, weighed against three goals. You are here.
All three are by Ahura, and each works on its own.