DECISION TABLE · DIVAN'S CONCLUSION · AI ANALYSIS · DIVAN2026Divanby AhuraWar & Security
War & Securityup to 3 Oct
ConfirmedOne side's claimUnverified
184 of 184 events
ClaimUS and IsraelDay 218 · 3 Oct 2026

School and homes demolished; villages shelled

1 · What happened
Where
Houla and other villages in southern Lebanon (Khiam, Tallouseh, Bani Hayyan, Kfar Tibnit and others) · Lebanon
Who
Israel
With what
demolition with explosives, artillery shelling, air strikes
Target
a school and homes in Houla; other villages shelled or bombed
Casualties
none reported in the opened text
Satellite image, before and after
No data availableWe have no free, sourced satellite image for this event.
Sourcesaa.com.tr

The war in a few counts

Counted from the recorded events above; this is not a full list of every strike.
184recorded events with a source
80confirmed by several independent sources
94one side's claim
10unverified or disputed
52on Iranian soil
Events per month
12Feb 26
82Mar 26
26Apr 26
10May 26
12Jun 26
16Jul 26
8Aug 26
14Sep 26
4Oct 26
ConfirmedOne side's claimUnverified
Who, according to the sources
US and Israel62
Iran72
Iran-aligned groups11
Regional states4
Disputed9
Unknown25
Other1
Where
Iran52
United Arab Emirates15
at sea15
Kuwait14
at sea (off Oman)14
Iraq13
Israel13
Saudi Arabia8

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Iran in the region: armed forces

Iran beside 8 other states of the region, on the World Bank's open data. Every figure stands beside its year.
First power of the region

One of the three goals of Divan's advisors is that Iran becomes the first power of its region. These few figures show the starting point: Iran's place among 9 states, in the latest year for which the World Bank has a figure.

Armed forces personnel

Iran: rank 3 of 9

Military personnel on active duty; paramilitary forces are counted, reservists are not.

  1. Pakistan943 thousand2020
  2. Egypt836 thousand2020
  3. Iran650 thousand2020
  4. Turkey512 thousand2020
  5. Iraq459 thousand2020
  6. Saudi Arabia282 thousand2020
  7. Israel178 thousand2020
  8. UAE63 thousand2020
  9. Qatar22 thousand2020

Source: The Military Balance, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), via World Bank Open Data · Licence: CC BY 4.0 · Indicator page at the World Bank · Raw data

Headcount, like military spending, says nothing about quality, technology, training or allies.

These are only a few indicators from one open source, World Bank Open Data. Every figure in this block is for 2020. So none of them reflects the war that began on 28 Feb 2026. Rank means Iran's place among these 9 states, which Divan chose; a state with no figure from 2018 on is not counted. Figures are rounded for reading; ranks and bar lengths are counted from the full values, which are under “Raw data”. The World Bank last updated these series on 13 Jul 2026; we read them on 5 Oct 2026.

If I were in their seat

The offices that decide in this field, and what an AI would decide in each.

AI analysis, not news
If I were in this seatSecretary of the Supreme National Security CouncilNow: Mohsen Rezaee

One text and one voice: I would write a step-for-step table and make one person its only spokesman.

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If I were in this seatChief of the General Staff of the Armed ForcesNow: Ali Abdollahi

I would put protecting people and vital infrastructure first: power, water, fuel and hospitals. And through a mediator I would ask for an emergency contact line, so an accident at sea does not become a new war.

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If I were in this seatCommander-in-Chief of the IRGCNow: Ahmad Vahidi

While talks are on I would keep a declared restraint at sea: no action against any merchant ship, and saying so in public.

See what follows →
If I were in this seatCommander-in-Chief of the ArmyNow: Amir Hatami

I would send engineering units to reopen roads and build temporary bridges, and place air defence first around the sites daily life depends on.

See what follows →
All seats →

Events are recorded up to 3 Oct 2026. Every row rests on at least one source that was opened; “confirmed” means several independent sources, “one side's claim” means only one party said so, and “unverified” means disputed or unconfirmed. Places are at city level, not exact coordinates.