Iran stays whole
No direct effectNo direct effect.
In Their Seat · Government
If I were the Head of the Atomic Energy Organization
The holder of this office is not in our data.
AI analysis, not newsFirst edition, before review
What this office can decide
- Running the nuclear facilities and programme.
- Technical cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
- Reporting on material and facilities to the cabinet and the Supreme National Security Council.
What is not in its hands
How far to cooperate with the Agency is set by the Supreme National Security Council and by law.
The decision and what follows
From the question to the outcome, step by stepSince June 2025 the Agency has not known where the 440 kg of 60 percent uranium is, or how much remains. The Board of Governors has reported the file to the Security Council.
I would offer one small but measurable technical step: accounting for the material at one named site, in return for no new action at the Security Council.
- 1Offering a limited technical visit with a clear list of what will be seen.
- 2A joint report by Iran and the Agency on that one item.
- 3A next step only if the other side kept its word too.
Ifs and buts
If the Agency confirms the accountingits next report to the Board may be milder.helps
If the Security Council acts anywaythe next step is not taken.open
+The upside
- Less uncertainty means less of a pretext for a new attack.
- It shows the technical channel is open even while the political one is shut.
−The downside
- Any access reveals information about damaged sites; that security concern is real.
- If nothing is gained in return, it will be called a free concession at home.
↺What would change my mind
Signs that information from the visit is reaching anyone outside the Agency.
Divan's three goals
What this decision does for Divan's three goals
Each column shows whether the decision brings Iran closer to that goal or takes it further away. The middle line is today.
AI analysis, not newsAI estimate: direction only, not a figure
A stronger Iran
Cuts both waysLess uncertainty weakens the pretext for a new attack; but any access reveals information about damaged sites.
First power of the region
slightly closerIran moves the file itself: a step for a step, not under pressure.
The facts this analysis rests on
Every figure with its source and dateUranium enriched up to 60%
Official document440.9kg of uranium
Enrichment to 60 percent is a short technical step from weapons grade. The Agency says Iran is the only state without nuclear weapons to have produced this much.
13 Jun 2025 · Source: IAEA Board report GOV/2026/50, para. 27 and footnote 17
Last IAEA inspection in Iran
Official document3 Jun 2026
The only inspection since the war began was at the Bushehr power plant on 1 to 3 June 2026. No access has been given to the facilities damaged in June 2025.
Another inspection at Bushehr was planned for mid-September 2026 and Iran had confirmed access; its outcome has not been reported yet.
1 Sep 2026 · Source: IAEA Board report GOV/2026/50, paras 15 and 21
Latest Board of Governors resolution
Official document9 Sep 2026
The Board of Governors voted 23 in favour to report Iran's file to the Security Council, for the first time in twenty years. Russia, China and Niger voted against.
The date is from the Agency itself; the vote count is from Agence France-Presse.
9 Sep 2026 · Source: IAEA, chronology of key events، France 24 / AFP (vote count and referral)
Declared nuclear facilities
Official document22facilities
Iran has declared 22 facilities to the Agency. Seven that held nuclear material were damaged in the June 2025 strikes: Fordow, two units at Natanz and four at Isfahan.
1 Sep 2026 · Source: IAEA Board report GOV/2026/50, paras 22–25 and Annex
Other seats in this group
All seats →If I were in this seatPresidentNow: Masoud Pezeshkian
I would send parliament a wartime budget amendment: stop non-essential spending and put that money straight onto the tables of low-income families.
See what follows →
If I were in this seatForeign MinisterNow: Abbas Araghchi
Instead of arguing over who goes first, I would propose a shared day zero: on the same day Iran opens the way for merchant ships and the United States pauses the blockade; the remaining points follow within thirty days.
See what follows →
If I were in this seatGovernor of the Central BankNow: Abdolnaser Hemmati
I would narrow the gap between the two rates on a schedule announced in advance, and at the same time stop lending to the government and to unsound banks.
See what follows →