DECISION TABLE · DIVAN'S CONCLUSION · AI ANALYSIS · DIVAN2026Divanby AhuraIn Their Seat
In Their Seat · Government

If I were the Governor of the Central Bank

Current holder: Abdolnaser Hemmati, since 31 Dec 2025 (source)

AI analysis, not newsFirst edition, before review

What this office can decide

  • Monetary and currency policy: the official exchange rate, interest rates and the money supply.
  • Supervising banks, up to closing an unsound one; this office dissolved Bank Ayandeh.
  • Holding and managing the foreign reserves.

What is not in its hands

The budget deficit and energy prices are set by the cabinet and parliament. While those remain, the central bank can only turn the heat down.

The decision and what follows

From the question to the outcome, step by step
On the desk

A dollar costs about 265,000 toman in the market and 175,000 at the exchange centre. Each cheap dollar hands its receiver about 90,000 toman for nothing. Do I keep that gap or close it?

My decision

I would narrow the gap between the two rates on a schedule announced in advance, and at the same time stop lending to the government and to unsound banks.

  1. 1Moving the exchange-centre rate toward the market in a few announced steps.
  2. 2A cap on what banks may draw from the central bank, and continued action against unsound banks.
  3. 3Regular publication of reserves and money-supply figures.
Ifs and buts
If the government cuts the deficit at the same timethe new rate holds and inflation slows.helps
If the blockade staysforeign currency stays scarce and the gap opens again.hurts
If a deal is signedthe rial recovers; around the June memorandum the dollar fell about 18 percent in six weeks.helps

The upside

  • The unearned gain from cheap currency shrinks; today the gap is about a third of the price.
  • Exporters have less reason to keep their earnings abroad.
  • Regular figures mean fewer rumours.

The downside

  • Imported goods and medicine cost more in the short run.
  • If the government does not cut its deficit the new rate will not hold, and two rates return.

What would change my mind

If usable reserves are too small to defend the new rate; their size is not public.

Divan's three goals

What this decision does for Divan's three goals

Each column shows whether the decision brings Iran closer to that goal or takes it further away. The middle line is today.

AI analysis, not newsAI estimate: direction only, not a figure

Iran stays whole

No direct effect

No direct effect. The short-run rise in the price of medicine and goods has to be offset with direct support.

A stronger Iran

closer

The unearned gain from cheap currency ends and the rial becomes more dependable. Stable money is a pillar of a strong economy.

First power of the region

slightly closer

A currency that holds its value can be used in trade with the neighbours.

The facts this analysis rests on

Every figure with its source and date

US dollar, free market

Report we read

about 265,000toman

What people pay in the market for one US dollar. The free market has no single official rate, so each source gives a slightly different figure.

Four figures between 263,900 and 267,900 toman were seen on the same day. Always read the figure with its source and hour.

3 Oct 2026 · Source: تابناک، ۱۱ مهر ۱۴۰۵، ساعت ۱۲:۰۵ (۲۶۴٬۵۰۰ تومان)، اقتصادآنلاین، ۱۱ مهر ۱۴۰۵ (۲۶۷٬۵۰۰ تومان)، tgju.org (۲٬۶۷۹٬۰۰۰ ریال)

US dollar, exchange-centre transfer rate (sell)

Report we read

175,228toman

The rate importers get from the currency exchange centre. It is about a third cheaper than the free market, and that gap is itself a sign of scarce foreign currency.

3 Oct 2026 · Source: تابناک، ۱۱ مهر ۱۴۰۵

Point-to-point inflation (Statistical Centre of Iran)

Report we read

89.8%

A fixed basket of goods cost almost 90 percent more in Shahrivar 1405 than a year earlier.

Shahrivar 1405 (August–September 2026) · Source: آفتاب‌نیوز، شفقنا اقتصادی

Other seats in this group

All seats →
If I were in this seatPresidentNow: Masoud Pezeshkian

I would send parliament a wartime budget amendment: stop non-essential spending and put that money straight onto the tables of low-income families.

See what follows →
If I were in this seatForeign MinisterNow: Abbas Araghchi

Instead of arguing over who goes first, I would propose a shared day zero: on the same day Iran opens the way for merchant ships and the United States pauses the blockade; the remaining points follow within thirty days.

See what follows →
If I were in this seatMinister of Economic Affairs and FinanceNow: Ali Madanizadeh

I would set a wartime fiscal rule: a ceiling on the deficit, and a published list of every tax exemption and budget line.

See what follows →

AI analysis: not news and not an official position. Author: Claude, an AI model by Anthropic · 5 Oct 2026. The subject is the office, not the person.