Iran stays whole
closerFood prices weigh most on low-income families. Direct support keeps discontent from turning into a rift.
In Their Seat · Government
If I were the President
Current holder: Masoud Pezeshkian, since 28 Jul 2024 (source)
AI analysis, not newsFirst edition, before review
What this office can decide
- Head of the executive and responsible for carrying out the constitution, except matters that belong directly to the Leader (Article 113).
- The national plan and budget (Article 126); the cabinet drafts the budget and parliament approves it (Article 52).
- Chairs the Supreme National Security Council (Article 176); signs treaties after parliament approves them (Article 125).
What is not in its hands
War and peace, the armed forces and general policies are not his to decide.
The decision and what follows
From the question to the outcome, step by stepFood prices have more than doubled in a year and the budget is 1,530 trillion toman short. Money is tight: what comes first?
I would send parliament a wartime budget amendment: stop non-essential spending and put that money straight onto the tables of low-income families.
- 1A budget amendment to parliament with a clear ceiling on the deficit.
- 2Direct food support for low-income families instead of cheap foreign currency, which does not reach everyone.
- 3A monthly public report of income and spending.
Ifs and buts
If parliament passes the amendmentless of the deficit is covered by borrowing and printing.helps
If it does notthe gap is filled from the National Development Fund, which has only 10 to 12 billion dollars it can turn into cash.hurts
If a ceasefire holdsoil sales return; in September not one tanker loaded.helps
+The upside
- The weight of food prices on low-income families eases.
- A smaller deficit means less money printed and lower inflation in the months after.
−The downside
- Stopping spending leaves projects half-built and ministries unhappy.
- While the blockade lasts oil income does not return: this eases the pain, it is not a cure.
↺What would change my mind
If the direct support turns out to be paid for with printed money: then it feeds inflation itself.
Divan's three goals
What this decision does for Divan's three goals
Each column shows whether the decision brings Iran closer to that goal or takes it further away. The middle line is today.
AI analysis, not newsAI estimate: direction only, not a figure
A stronger Iran
slightly closerA smaller deficit means lower inflation, and a stable economy is the base of any power.
First power of the region
No direct effectNo direct effect.
The facts this analysis rests on
Every figure with its source and datePoint-to-point food inflation
Report we read121.8%
Food has more than doubled in price in a year. Non-food goods and services rose 71.9 percent over the same period.
Shahrivar 1405 (August–September 2026) · Source: شفقنا اقتصادی
Budget deficit 1405 (Majlis Research Centre definition)
Report we read1,530trillion toman
This year the government plans to spend about 1,530 trillion toman more than it earns, and fills the gap by selling bonds and drawing on the National Development Fund. One hemmat is a thousand billion toman.
24 Sep 2026 · Source: نماد اقتصاد
GDP growth, spring 1405
Report we read-10.1%
Iran's economy was ten percent smaller in spring 1405 than a year earlier. Oil and gas fell most (26 percent); without oil the fall is 4.6 percent.
Spring 1405 (March–June 2026) · Source: خبرآنلاین به نقل از مرکز آمار ایران
National Development Fund assets
Report we readabout 30billion US dollars
The fund was meant to keep part of the oil money for the future. Of the 164 billion dollars paid into it, about 30 billion remain, and only 10 to 12 billion of that can be turned into cash.
Figures are as of December 2024; no newer figure was found.
31 Dec 2024 · Source: خبرآنلاین، به نقل از رئیس صندوق
Other seats in this group
All seats →If I were in this seatForeign MinisterNow: Abbas Araghchi
Instead of arguing over who goes first, I would propose a shared day zero: on the same day Iran opens the way for merchant ships and the United States pauses the blockade; the remaining points follow within thirty days.
See what follows →
If I were in this seatGovernor of the Central BankNow: Abdolnaser Hemmati
I would narrow the gap between the two rates on a schedule announced in advance, and at the same time stop lending to the government and to unsound banks.
See what follows →
If I were in this seatMinister of Economic Affairs and FinanceNow: Ali Madanizadeh
I would set a wartime fiscal rule: a ceiling on the deficit, and a published list of every tax exemption and budget line.
See what follows →