Iran stays whole
No direct effectNo direct effect.
In Their Seat · Government
If I were the Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance
Current holder: Ali Madanizadeh, since 16 Jun 2025 (source)
AI analysis, not newsFirst edition, before review
What this office can decide
- Taxes, the treasury and the sale of government bonds.
- Customs and the government's revenue policy.
- Oversight of state companies and privatisation.
What is not in its hands
Parliament sets the budget ceiling, and each ministry spends its own share.
The decision and what follows
From the question to the outcome, step by stepThe 1,530 trillion toman deficit is covered by selling bonds and drawing on the National Development Fund, but the fund has only 10 to 12 billion dollars it can turn into cash. How long can that go on?
I would set a wartime fiscal rule: a ceiling on the deficit, and a published list of every tax exemption and budget line.
- 1A legal ceiling on the deficit, with a report every quarter.
- 2Publishing the list of tax exemptions and what each one costs.
- 3Government bonds with a return not far behind inflation, so the public buys them and not the central bank.
Ifs and buts
If parliament makes the ceiling lawlater governments are bound by it too.helps
If the rule has a way around itit is the same as having no rule.hurts
+The upside
- Withdrawals from the fund slow, and something is left for the day after the war.
- With a public list, the argument is about numbers, not rumours.
−The downside
- Higher bond returns mean costlier government debt in later years.
- Institutions that hold exemptions will resist.
↺What would change my mind
If the war flares up again: in that case the ceiling needs an emergency clause.
Divan's three goals
What this decision does for Divan's three goals
Each column shows whether the decision brings Iran closer to that goal or takes it further away. The middle line is today.
AI analysis, not newsAI estimate: direction only, not a figure
A stronger Iran
closerThe development fund is kept for the day after the war; rebuilding needs money.
First power of the region
slightly closerA country with open books finds partners and capital more easily.
The facts this analysis rests on
Every figure with its source and dateBudget deficit 1405 (Majlis Research Centre definition)
Report we read1,530trillion toman
This year the government plans to spend about 1,530 trillion toman more than it earns, and fills the gap by selling bonds and drawing on the National Development Fund. One hemmat is a thousand billion toman.
24 Sep 2026 · Source: نماد اقتصاد
National Development Fund assets
Report we readabout 30billion US dollars
The fund was meant to keep part of the oil money for the future. Of the 164 billion dollars paid into it, about 30 billion remain, and only 10 to 12 billion of that can be turned into cash.
Figures are as of December 2024; no newer figure was found.
31 Dec 2024 · Source: خبرآنلاین، به نقل از رئیس صندوق
Non-oil trade (to mid-2026)
Report we read32billion US dollars
Non-oil exports were 15 billion dollars and imports 17 billion, each about a quarter lower than a year earlier.
18 Aug 2026 · Source: Nournews, citing the head of Iran's customs
Other seats in this group
All seats →If I were in this seatPresidentNow: Masoud Pezeshkian
I would send parliament a wartime budget amendment: stop non-essential spending and put that money straight onto the tables of low-income families.
See what follows →
If I were in this seatForeign MinisterNow: Abbas Araghchi
Instead of arguing over who goes first, I would propose a shared day zero: on the same day Iran opens the way for merchant ships and the United States pauses the blockade; the remaining points follow within thirty days.
See what follows →
If I were in this seatGovernor of the Central BankNow: Abdolnaser Hemmati
I would narrow the gap between the two rates on a schedule announced in advance, and at the same time stop lending to the government and to unsound banks.
See what follows →