DECISION TABLE · DIVAN'S CONCLUSION · AI ANALYSIS · DIVAN2026Divanby AhuraIn Their Seat
In Their Seat · Government

If I were the Minister of Petroleum

This office has no minister at present. Caretaker: Hamid Bovard (source)

AI analysis, not newsFirst edition, before review

What this office can decide

  • Producing, refining and selling oil and gas.
  • The plan for maintaining wells and fields.
  • Supplying the country's fuel: petrol, diesel and gas.

What is not in its hands

The cabinet and parliament set the petrol price, and whether oil can be sold depends on the blockade.

The decision and what follows

From the question to the outcome, step by step
On the desk

In September not one tanker loaded. Storage is filling and output is falling. Refineries also make 23 million litres of petrol a day less than the country burns.

My decision

I would cut output to a plan so the wells are not damaged, and close the petrol gap by managing demand, not by importing.

  1. 1A list of wells by how easily they are damaged; those safest to shut in go first.
  2. 2More crude to domestic refineries, and products sold across land borders.
  3. 3Smart petrol rationing and wider use of natural gas in cars.
Ifs and buts
If the blockade is liftedloadings come back from zero; in March exports were 1.84 million barrels a day.helps
If the blockade lasts into wintermore wells must be shut in, and bringing them back gets harder.hurts

The upside

  • The wells stay sound for the day sales reopen.
  • Less foreign currency goes on petrol imports.

The downside

  • Today's income falls further.
  • Managing demand means limits for people; the petrol price rise of November 2019 led to wide protests.

What would change my mind

If shutting wells in damages the fields more than estimated: then selling at a deeper discount costs less.

Divan's three goals

What this decision does for Divan's three goals

Each column shows whether the decision brings Iran closer to that goal or takes it further away. The middle line is today.

AI analysis, not newsAI estimate: direction only, not a figure

Iran stays whole

slightly further

Managing demand means limits for people. If it is unfair it breeds unrest; November 2019 is the reminder.

A stronger Iran

closer

A sound well means a quick return to the market on the day sales reopen.

First power of the region

slightly closer

Iran returns to the oil market with its capacity intact, and that is its weight in the region.

The facts this analysis rests on

Every figure with its source and date

Crude oil loadings for export

Quoted second-hand

0barrels a day

In September no tanker loaded crude at Iranian ports, for the first time since the war began. In August about 250,000 barrels a day were loaded.

The Bloomberg report itself could not be opened; the figure comes from outlets that reprinted it. Loading is not the same as crossing the blockade line.

September 2026 · Source: briefs.co، OilPrice.com

Gasoline prices

Report we read

1,500 / 3,000 / 10,000toman a litre

Three prices: the first 60 litres a month at 1,500 toman, the next 50 at 3,000, and anything above at 10,000 (since 8 September 2026). The government says 80 to 85 percent of people never reach the third price.

8 Sep 2026 · Source: اقتصادآنلاین، اعلام سخنگوی دولت

Other seats in this group

All seats →
If I were in this seatPresidentNow: Masoud Pezeshkian

I would send parliament a wartime budget amendment: stop non-essential spending and put that money straight onto the tables of low-income families.

See what follows →
If I were in this seatForeign MinisterNow: Abbas Araghchi

Instead of arguing over who goes first, I would propose a shared day zero: on the same day Iran opens the way for merchant ships and the United States pauses the blockade; the remaining points follow within thirty days.

See what follows →
If I were in this seatGovernor of the Central BankNow: Abdolnaser Hemmati

I would narrow the gap between the two rates on a schedule announced in advance, and at the same time stop lending to the government and to unsound banks.

See what follows →

AI analysis: not news and not an official position. Author: Claude, an AI model by Anthropic · 5 Oct 2026. The subject is the office, not the person.