DECISION TABLE · DIVAN'S CONCLUSION · AI ANALYSIS · DIVAN2026Divanby AhuraEconomy
The economy in a few figures

Economy

Here are the main figures of Iran's economy, each with a line on what it means in daily life. The chart shows how the dollar moved before and after the big events.

Headline figures

US dollar, free market

Live

270,000toman

Latest quote: 5 Oct 2026, 16:48 Tehran time · 0.63% higher than 24 hours earlier

What people pay in the market for one US dollar. The free market has no single official rate, so each source gives a slightly different figure.

Source: TGJU, via Manshur

Point-to-point inflation (Statistical Centre of Iran)

Report we read

89.8%

A fixed basket of goods cost almost 90 percent more in Shahrivar 1405 than a year earlier.

Shahrivar 1405 (August–September 2026) · Source: آفتاب‌نیوز، شفقنا اقتصادی

GDP growth, spring 1405

Report we read

-10.1%

Iran's economy was ten percent smaller in spring 1405 than a year earlier. Oil and gas fell most (26 percent); without oil the fall is 4.6 percent.

Each part against the same season a year earlier
  • Economy without oil4.6% smaller
  • Oil and gas26.4% smaller
  • Services4.8% smaller
  • Agriculture2.3% larger

Spring 1405 (March–June 2026) · Source: خبرآنلاین به نقل از مرکز آمار ایران

Crude oil loadings for export

Quoted second-hand

0barrels a day

In September no tanker loaded crude at Iranian ports, for the first time since the war began. In August about 250,000 barrels a day were loaded.

Loaded each day, thousand barrels
  • August 2026250
  • September 20260

The Bloomberg report itself could not be opened; the figure comes from outlets that reprinted it. Loading is not the same as crossing the blockade line.

September 2026 · Source: briefs.co، OilPrice.com

Budget deficit 1405 (Majlis Research Centre definition)

Report we read

1,530trillion toman

This year the government plans to spend about 1,530 trillion toman more than it earns, and fills the gap by selling bonds and drawing on the National Development Fund. One hemmat is a thousand billion toman.

24 Sep 2026 · Source: نماد اقتصاد

The dollar around the big events

Free-market dollar, 13 Jun 2025 to 3 Oct 2026

in toman
  • War
  • Diplomacy
  • Sanctions
  • Domestic decision
  • The source's own figure
  • Approximate figure

This chart shows only 18 days: the days on which we read the dollar's price in a source ourselves. The line only joins the dots; we have no figure for the days in between and have guessed none. The free market has no single rate, and the price depends on the hour. Where a source quoted rials, we converted to toman (one toman is ten rials).

Events on the chart

All 18 points with their sources
DateOne dollarEventSourceAs the source put it
13 Jun 2025about 94,000 tomanStart of the twelve-day warEghtesad Onlineabout 94,000 toman, unofficial trading
28 Sep 2025110,010 tomanUN sanctions returnEghtesad Online110,010 toman, at 11:18
30 Sep 2025about 117,000 toman—Iran Internationalrecord of 1.17 million rials
29 Dec 2025about 141,000 tomanChange of central bank governor announcedIran Internationalabout 1.41 million rials
27 Jan 2026150,000 toman—Al Jazeerarecord low of 1,500,000
28 Feb 2026165,370 tomanStart of the warEttelaat1,653,700 rials, at 08:00
28 Mar 2026158,545 toman—Shargh, quoting Eghtesad24158,545 toman, at 08:50
13 Apr 2026156,570 toman—Eghtesad Online1,565,700 rials
29 Apr 2026about 181,000 toman—Al Jazeera1.81 million rials
4 May 2026about 190,000 toman—Iran Internationalprevious record of 1,900,000
18 Jun 2026156,510 tomanOne day after the memorandum of understanding was signedEghtesad Online156,510 toman
14 Jul 2026181,285 toman—Eghtesad Online181,285 toman
17 Jul 2026191,800 toman—Iran Internationalrecord of 1,918,000
5 Sep 2026about 225,000 toman—Iran Internationalabout 2.25 million rials
28 Sep 2026243,500 tomanTwo days after the seven-day Hormuz plan was rejectedEghtesad Online243,500 toman, at 19:27
29 Sep 2026252,475 toman—Eghtesad Online252,475 toman, at 13:23
30 Sep 2026253,800 toman—Eghtesad Online253,800 toman, at 11:20
3 Oct 2026264,500 toman—Tabnak264,500 toman, at 12:05

Prices

How much dearer daily life has become

Twelve-month inflation (Statistical Centre of Iran)

Report we read

73.6%

Average price rise over the past twelve months against the twelve months before. This figure moves more slowly than point-to-point inflation.

Shahrivar 1405 (August–September 2026) · Source: آفتاب‌نیوز، اکوایران

Monthly inflation (Statistical Centre of Iran)

Report we read

4.2%

Prices rose this much in a single month. Food rose 2.3 percent, non-food goods and services 5.7 percent.

Shahrivar 1405 (August–September 2026) · Source: شفقنا اقتصادی

Point-to-point food inflation

Report we read

121.8%

Food has more than doubled in price in a year. Non-food goods and services rose 71.9 percent over the same period.

Shahrivar 1405 (August–September 2026) · Source: شفقنا اقتصادی

US dollar, exchange-centre transfer rate (sell)

Report we read

175,228toman

The rate importers get from the currency exchange centre. It is about a third cheaper than the free market, and that gap is itself a sign of scarce foreign currency.

3 Oct 2026 · Source: تابناک، ۱۱ مهر ۱۴۰۵

Oil and fuel

What is produced, what is sold and what runs short

Oil revenue lost to the blockade

Report we read

about 6billion US dollars

Lloyd's List estimates the naval blockade cut about 6 billion dollars from Iran's oil income in two months alone. Exports fell from 1.84 million barrels a day in March to under 300,000 in May.

Oil exports, million barrels a day
  • March 20261.84
  • April 20261.34
  • May 2026under 0.3

April and May 2026 · Source: Al Jazeera, citing Lloyd's List

Gasoline prices

Report we read

1,500 / 3,000 / 10,000toman a litre

Three prices: the first 60 litres a month at 1,500 toman, the next 50 at 3,000, and anything above at 10,000 (since 8 September 2026). The government says 80 to 85 percent of people never reach the third price.

8 Sep 2026 · Source: اقتصادآنلاین، اعلام سخنگوی دولت

Electricity shortfall, summer 1405

Report we read

13,640megawatts

At the peak of the summer heat, power plants supplied about 13,600 megawatts less than the country needed, which means rolling cuts for homes and factories.

Three estimates by the Majlis Research Centre (megawatts)
  • Optimistic10,112
  • Main estimate13,640
  • Pessimistic18,796

14 Jul 2026 · Source: همشهری آنلاین، به نقل از مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس

Budget and reserves

What savings remain and how the year is forecast

National Development Fund assets

Report we read

about 30billion US dollars

The fund was meant to keep part of the oil money for the future. Of the 164 billion dollars paid into it, about 30 billion remain, and only 10 to 12 billion of that can be turned into cash.

From 1389 (2010–11) to December 2024, billion US dollars
  • Oil and gas money paid in163.7
  • Used by the government96
  • Lent to the private sector29
  • What remainsabout 30
  • The part that can be turned into cash10 to 12

Figures are as of December 2024; no newer figure was found.

31 Dec 2024 · Source: خبرآنلاین، به نقل از رئیس صندوق

Gross international reserves (IMF estimate)

Report we read

26.1billion US dollars

The foreign currency the central bank holds on paper. Much of it is frozen in foreign banks because of sanctions; how much is usable is not known.

Billion US dollars, year by year
  • 202320.7
  • 202426.1
  • 2025 (projection)33.8

31 Dec 2024 · Source: FRED, series IRNFAFARUSD (IMF)

IMF forecast for 2026

Quoted second-hand

-6.1%

The IMF expects Iran's economy to shrink by about 6 percent in 2026, with average inflation of 69 percent.

Average inflation in 2026 (forecast)
68.9%

The IMF document itself was not seen.

17 Jul 2026 · Source: Iran International, citing the IMF

Banks and the stock market

What has happened to one large bank and to the exchange

Dissolution of Bank Ayandeh

Report we read

550trillion toman

The central bank dissolved this bank with accumulated losses of 550 trillion toman and moved its deposits to Bank Melli. This one bank accounted for 42 percent of all banks' debt to the central bank.

In trillion toman
  • Accumulated losses550
  • Overdraft at the central bank313
Share of all banks' overdraft
42%

23 Oct 2025 · Source: عصر ایران، بیانیهٔ بانک مرکزی، باشگاه خبرنگاران جوان

Tehran Stock Exchange main index

Report we read

about 7,167,000points

The stock exchange was shut for about 80 days from the first day of the war. Since reopening the index has almost doubled; with inflation near 90 percent that mostly means money fleeing the rial, not a boom.

Main index, points
  • Before the war3,713,000
  • 22 Sep 2026about 7,167,000
The market was shut
28 Feb 2026 to 19 May 2026

22 Sep 2026 · Source: اقتصادآنلاین، شهرآرانیوز

Trade

Buying from and selling to the outside world

Non-oil trade (to mid-2026)

Report we read

32billion US dollars

Non-oil exports were 15 billion dollars and imports 17 billion, each about a quarter lower than a year earlier.

Billion US dollars
  • Exports15
  • Imports17
Against a year earlier
24% lower

18 Aug 2026 · Source: Nournews, citing the head of Iran's customs

Trade with the UAE

Report we read

21.21billion US dollars

The UAE was the largest gateway for goods entering Iran. Since 19 August 2026 it has stopped all trade and financial transactions with Iran.

Billion US dollars
  • Iran's sales to the UAE6.4
  • Iran's purchases from the UAE14.81
All trade stopped from
19 Aug 2026

Ten months to January 2026 · Source: AFP via The Korea Times, citing Iran's customs، Al Jazeera, UAE embargo

Live prices

From Manshur; refreshed about every ten minutes. Times are Tehran time.

18k gold / gram

Live

26,546,900toman

0.92% higher than 24 hours earlier

5 Oct 2026, 16:48 · Source: TGJU, via Manshur

Emami coin

Live

271,515,000toman

0.23% higher than 24 hours earlier

5 Oct 2026, 16:48 · Source: TGJU, via Manshur

Euro (cash)

Live

303,160toman

0.07% higher than 24 hours earlier

5 Oct 2026, 16:48 · Source: TGJU, via Manshur

Economy stories, live from Manshur

Each headline opens that story on Manshur

Unemployment rate

No data available

We do not yet have an unemployment figure that we have read at its source and that carries a clear date, so we print no number here and guess nothing.

Iran in the region: economy, people and science

Iran beside 8 other states of the region, on the World Bank's open data. Every figure stands beside its year.
First power of the region

One of the three goals of Divan's advisors is that Iran becomes the first power of its region. These few figures show the starting point: Iran's place among 9 states, in the latest year for which the World Bank has a figure.

GDP in US dollars

Iran: rank 7 of 9

The value of all the goods and services the country produced in a year, in US dollars at that year's prices.

  1. Turkey$1,597 billion2025
  2. Saudi Arabia$1,277 billion2025
  3. Israel$611 billion2025
  4. UAE$552 billion2024
  5. Pakistan$407 billion2025
  6. Egypt$365 billion2025
  7. Iran$363 billion2025
  8. Iraq$254 billion2025
  9. Qatar$216 billion2025

Source: National statistics offices and central banks, OECD national accounts and World Bank staff estimates, via World Bank Open Data · Licence: CC BY 4.0 · Indicator page at the World Bank · Raw data

GDP at purchasing power parity

Iran: rank 4 of 9

The same output, adjusted for the different price levels between countries; better suited to comparing the size of economies than conversion at exchange rates.

  1. TurkeyInt$3,889 billion2025
  2. Saudi ArabiaInt$2,728 billion2025
  3. EgyptInt$2,391 billion2025
  4. IranInt$1,821 billion2025
  5. PakistanInt$1,678 billion2025
  6. UAEInt$872 billion2024
  7. IraqInt$671 billion2025
  8. IsraelInt$605 billion2025
  9. QatarInt$383 billion2025

Source: International Comparison Program (World Bank), the PPP programmes of Eurostat and the OECD, OECD national accounts, the IMF's World Economic Outlook and World Bank staff estimates, via World Bank Open Data · Licence: CC BY 4.0 · Indicator page at the World Bank · Raw data

Exports of goods and services

Iran: rank 7 of 9

The value of the goods and services the country sold abroad in a year, in US dollars at that year's prices.

  1. UAE$558 billion2023
  2. Turkey$397 billion2025
  3. Saudi Arabia$380 billion2025
  4. Israel$168 billion2025
  5. Qatar$162 billion2022
  6. Iraq$111 billion2024
  7. Iran$93 billion2025
  8. Egypt$72 billion2025
  9. Pakistan$41 billion2025

Source: National statistics offices, central banks' national accounts and World Bank staff estimates, via World Bank Open Data · Licence: CC BY 4.0 · Indicator page at the World Bank · Raw data

Population

Iran: rank 3 of 9

Everyone living in the country, whatever their citizenship; a mid-year estimate.

  1. Pakistan255.2 million2025
  2. Egypt118.4 million2025
  3. Iran92.4 million2025
  4. Turkey85.9 million2025
  5. Iraq47 million2025
  6. Saudi Arabia37 million2025
  7. UAE11.5 million2025
  8. Israel10.1 million2025
  9. Qatar3 million2025

Source: UN Population Division (World Population Prospects), national statistics offices, Eurostat and the UN Statistics Division, via World Bank Open Data · Licence: CC BY 4.0 · Indicator page at the World Bank · Raw data

Researchers per million people

Iran: rank 3 of 8

How many of every million inhabitants work in research and development.

  1. Turkey2,645 per million2023
  2. UAE2,607 per million2021
  3. Iran2,240 per million2021
  4. Saudi Arabia1,235 per million2024
  5. Egypt1,120 per million2024
  6. Qatar948 per million2021
  7. Pakistan474 per million2023
  8. Iraq164 per million2021

No data available: Israel

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS), via World Bank Open Data · Licence: CC BY 4.0 · Indicator page at the World Bank · Raw data

Scientific and technical articles

Iran: rank 1 of 9

Science and engineering articles in a selection of the peer-reviewed journals and conference proceedings in Scopus; a joint article is shared between countries in proportion to its authors.

  1. Iran55,085 articles2023
  2. Turkey50,180 articles2023
  3. Saudi Arabia24,595 articles2023
  4. Egypt22,854 articles2023
  5. Pakistan20,519 articles2023
  6. Iraq16,724 articles2023
  7. Israel13,844 articles2023
  8. UAE7,075 articles2023
  9. Qatar2,471 articles2023

Source: Science and Engineering Indicators, US National Science Foundation (NSF), via World Bank Open Data · Licence: CC BY 4.0 · Indicator page at the World Bank · Raw data

These are only a few indicators from one open source, World Bank Open Data. The years differ; the newest figure in this block is for 2025. So none of them reflects the war that began on 28 Feb 2026. Rank means Iran's place among these 9 states, which Divan chose; a state with no figure from 2018 on is not counted. Figures are rounded for reading; ranks and bar lengths are counted from the full values, which are under “Raw data”. The World Bank last updated these series on 13 Jul 2026; we read them on 5 Oct 2026.

If I were in their seat

The offices that decide in this field, and what an AI would decide in each.

AI analysis, not news
All seats →

Each figure on this page is as of the date shown on its own card and comes from the source named beside it. Live prices and stories come from Manshur and are refreshed about every ten minutes.